Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Forecast, 2023

Forecast for accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic through the 2023 hurricane season


Hist. Avg: -

CSU Model: -

Actual: -

9/30 Proj: -

9/30 IQR: -

Daily forecasts for the Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the Atlantic Ocean on September 30th. This is the forecast I’m using to predict this question in Metaculus’s quarterly forecasting tournament. There is no meteorological significance of Sep. 30th, this is just the end date for the tournament.

My forecast is based entirely off of the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project forecasts for this year. I use their 2023 full-season forecast (which includes a median estimate and error bands), combined with historical averages (from 1991 - 2020) to produce a daily estimate. See this blog post for a more detailed explanation.